Summer Banks
SaraJIPCC Working Group 2: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability
April 12th 2007 06:59
Well, another exciting week in a warming world!
This week I attended the press conference for the release of the second installment of the IPCC's fourth assessment report: Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. (My first press conference! Don't know how I swung it actually, me working for a major commercial player and this being a media only event... must have smiled at the right person!). As with the last report, at this stage only the Summary for Policymakers has been released and is available from the IPCC website. Click here. It is anticipated the whole report will be released in September.
The report analyses the impacts of climate change on natural, managed and human systems. As Darwin once said, (paraphrased by yours truly) it is not the strongest species which survive, rather it is the species with the ability to adapt. With the projected physical changes (see Working Group 1 report for these predictions), it is not difficult to understand that adaptation will be necessary for all species in order for them to survive. Humans: a naturally defenceless animal born with no weapons other than our brains, are probably able to figure out a few things we can do. The scary thing about this report, for me, is what about flora and fauna?
Chapter 11 of the full report (not released yet) specifically deals with the impact of climate change on Australian and New Zealand ecosystems. The Summary outlines a few hotspots. One of the speakers at the conference, Dr Lesley Hughes from Macquarie University was one of the authors of this report, and provided us with a preview through 5 key messages which I found really interesting.
1. Impacts of Climate Change are already beginning to show
For example - in the Alpine environment there has been a decrease in snow depths of 40% in the last 40 years (Not good news for the snow-boarders and skiers out there). The tree-line of snow gums has moved, and they are now found at much higher elevations than in the past, and more feral and native animals are occurring in the alpine environment. In the Northern Territory of Australia, Mangroves are beginning to move into freshwater regions
Prior to 1979, there were no recorded mass coral bleachings on the Great Barrier Reef. Since 1979 there have been 8! The most serious ones occurring between 98 and 02. Migratory Birds are now arriving earlier and leaving later, about 4 days each side. The sub antarctic islands are being affected- there are population changes and differences in plant colonization as the temperatures favor some species and disadvantage others.
2. Many of Earths Ecosystems are already stressed
There are not many ecosystems left which have not been affected by man. We seem to make it pretty hard for our planet. Many species are affected by habitat loss, fragmentation of land, land clearing, agriculture creating monocultures, increases in salinity (exacerbated by increase CO2 levels as the ocean absorbs 1/3 of CO2, making it become more acidic), over use of land, and invasive species - for example the cane toad, displacing other species in its favoured habitats.
3. Climate Change will cause significant negative impacts
Temperature increase will affect distributions, lifecycles, populations and community compositions of species. Many Australian and NZ species are endemic, and many are already rare or threatened. Predictions are the forest fires will increase. The number of Fire Danger Days is likely to increase by 4 - 25% by 2020 and 15 - 70% by 2050!!! Scary.
Going back to some basic geography, temperatures naturally drop as you move away from the coast or as you move up a mountain. The projected temperature increases are btw 0.1 and 6.7 degrees. To stay within the same temperature range, most species will have to undertake major migrations! In a country as flat as Australia, its not as simple as moving up a mountain, and the example given to us, was that to accommodate a 3 degree change, a species will have to move approximately 360km to be within the same temperature range.
4. Environmental Hotspots
Great Barrier Reef: There is no scientific evidence to suggest that coral will be able to adapt physiologically
Alpine Zone: It is predicted there will be a decrease of 10 - 40% reduction by 2020 and 20 - 85% by 2050.
Coastal Wetlands: Will experience increased tidal surges and changes in precipitation
North Queensland: the temperate rainforests are at risk, a 2 - 3 degree increase will see most of these disappear.
5. Natural Systems have a low adaptive capacity
The projected rate of change is faster than species can adapt too genetically. Over the last 400,000 years, the average temperature range has varied approximately 10 degrees. We are currently at the top end of that scale. At 6 degrees lower than us, the sea level was lower by 125m! At 3 degrees higher, the sea level was 6m higher (and these are distributions which happened while CO2 was still around 270ppm at the highest). Changes happened what appears to be relatively quickly: there are occassions of increases of 10 degrees over 10000 year periods, and that was considered sudden. To put that in perspective - we are going into a total unknown, with a predicted rise of up to 7 degrees within the next 80 years. Thats only 3 - 4 generations of people.
Scary stuff! For us and the ecosystem supporting us.
This week I attended the press conference for the release of the second installment of the IPCC's fourth assessment report: Climate Change 2007: Climate Change Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. (My first press conference! Don't know how I swung it actually, me working for a major commercial player and this being a media only event... must have smiled at the right person!). As with the last report, at this stage only the Summary for Policymakers has been released and is available from the IPCC website. Click here. It is anticipated the whole report will be released in September.
The report analyses the impacts of climate change on natural, managed and human systems. As Darwin once said, (paraphrased by yours truly) it is not the strongest species which survive, rather it is the species with the ability to adapt. With the projected physical changes (see Working Group 1 report for these predictions), it is not difficult to understand that adaptation will be necessary for all species in order for them to survive. Humans: a naturally defenceless animal born with no weapons other than our brains, are probably able to figure out a few things we can do. The scary thing about this report, for me, is what about flora and fauna?
Chapter 11 of the full report (not released yet) specifically deals with the impact of climate change on Australian and New Zealand ecosystems. The Summary outlines a few hotspots. One of the speakers at the conference, Dr Lesley Hughes from Macquarie University was one of the authors of this report, and provided us with a preview through 5 key messages which I found really interesting.
1. Impacts of Climate Change are already beginning to show
For example - in the Alpine environment there has been a decrease in snow depths of 40% in the last 40 years (Not good news for the snow-boarders and skiers out there). The tree-line of snow gums has moved, and they are now found at much higher elevations than in the past, and more feral and native animals are occurring in the alpine environment. In the Northern Territory of Australia, Mangroves are beginning to move into freshwater regions
Prior to 1979, there were no recorded mass coral bleachings on the Great Barrier Reef. Since 1979 there have been 8! The most serious ones occurring between 98 and 02. Migratory Birds are now arriving earlier and leaving later, about 4 days each side. The sub antarctic islands are being affected- there are population changes and differences in plant colonization as the temperatures favor some species and disadvantage others.
2. Many of Earths Ecosystems are already stressed
There are not many ecosystems left which have not been affected by man. We seem to make it pretty hard for our planet. Many species are affected by habitat loss, fragmentation of land, land clearing, agriculture creating monocultures, increases in salinity (exacerbated by increase CO2 levels as the ocean absorbs 1/3 of CO2, making it become more acidic), over use of land, and invasive species - for example the cane toad, displacing other species in its favoured habitats.
3. Climate Change will cause significant negative impacts
Temperature increase will affect distributions, lifecycles, populations and community compositions of species. Many Australian and NZ species are endemic, and many are already rare or threatened. Predictions are the forest fires will increase. The number of Fire Danger Days is likely to increase by 4 - 25% by 2020 and 15 - 70% by 2050!!! Scary.
Going back to some basic geography, temperatures naturally drop as you move away from the coast or as you move up a mountain. The projected temperature increases are btw 0.1 and 6.7 degrees. To stay within the same temperature range, most species will have to undertake major migrations! In a country as flat as Australia, its not as simple as moving up a mountain, and the example given to us, was that to accommodate a 3 degree change, a species will have to move approximately 360km to be within the same temperature range.
4. Environmental Hotspots
Great Barrier Reef: There is no scientific evidence to suggest that coral will be able to adapt physiologically
Alpine Zone: It is predicted there will be a decrease of 10 - 40% reduction by 2020 and 20 - 85% by 2050.
Coastal Wetlands: Will experience increased tidal surges and changes in precipitation
North Queensland: the temperate rainforests are at risk, a 2 - 3 degree increase will see most of these disappear.
5. Natural Systems have a low adaptive capacity
The projected rate of change is faster than species can adapt too genetically. Over the last 400,000 years, the average temperature range has varied approximately 10 degrees. We are currently at the top end of that scale. At 6 degrees lower than us, the sea level was lower by 125m! At 3 degrees higher, the sea level was 6m higher (and these are distributions which happened while CO2 was still around 270ppm at the highest). Changes happened what appears to be relatively quickly: there are occassions of increases of 10 degrees over 10000 year periods, and that was considered sudden. To put that in perspective - we are going into a total unknown, with a predicted rise of up to 7 degrees within the next 80 years. Thats only 3 - 4 generations of people.
Scary stuff! For us and the ecosystem supporting us.
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